It's WMU vs. CMU. The records are similar, but these are two teams heading in opposite directions. CMU started the season looking like a team that could still contend for the MAC West, even after losing a plethora of stars. Close games at Temple and Northwestern gave the appearance that the Chips were going to be in the hunt again.
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Fast forward to their home game with Ball State. The Cardinals simply had their way with CMU, and they did it with a freshmen QB, who looked like a deer in the headlights against the Broncos.
After that game, the Chips were never the same. In what many expected to be lopsided CMU wins, the Chips found themselves trying to hang on for dear life, and in most cases they failed.
On the opposite side, the Broncos have played solid football since an embarrassing home loss against Idaho. Even in losing to Notre Dame and NIU they showed the grit and determination of a team on the rise. But take nothing for granted, this is CMU, and worse yet, it's in what Bronco fans refer to as Dismal Flats, i.e. Mt. Pleasant. Where wins are few and far between.
Comparisons
Quarterback- Since throwing 64 passes and 6 interceptions against UT, Alex Carder has thrown only 5 picks. Ryan Radcliff leads the MAC with 15 picks. He's looked a little gun shy as of late throwing for only a 132 yards against a Bowling Green pass defense that gives up 220 yards a game.
Edge WMU
Running Backs- The Bronco running game is virtually non-existent. Their best running back is not ready, their short yardage back is injured, and their starting RB simply can't get yards after he's hit. With crappy weather in the forecast not having a running game could come back to bite them. On the other side, CMU is led by Paris Cotton. Cotton is 3rd in the league at 78 yards per game, but he's shown a HUGE knack for coughing up the ball at the worst possible time.
Edge CMU
Offensive line-Ryan Radcliff and the Chips are dead last in the MAC in sacks against. Radcliff has been sacked 28 times for a 176 yards in losses. Neither team is lighting it up in terms of the running game, so pass defense is a must. The Chips lack depth on the line, and are dealing with some injuries.
Edge WMU
Receivers-Jordan White, Juan Nunez, and Robert Arnheim. Enough said. These guys are sure handed play makers, who have produced all year. White leads the MAC in receiving and receptions. Cody White is 5th in the MAC, but doesn't get much help for his fellow Chip receivers.
Edge WMU
On the defensive side of the ball the Broncos should be fairly healthy. Paul Hazel has looked a bit gassed as of late. The long season may be taking its toll on the speedy by smallish DE.
Defensive Line-The Broncos have shown themselves to be solid across the front this season. The combo front of Drew Nowak and Trevonte Boles have made life easier for the WMU linebackers and DB's. Both have been coming off their blocks and making some solid tackles at the line. Boles is a true freshmen. The Chips could be without All MAC DT, Sean Murman. If Paul Hazel can get that motor running at full speed again, it will be a long day for semi-mobile Chip QB Ryan Radcliff.
Edge WMU
Linebackers-The Chips have one of their best groups of linebackers since the era of much hated ESPN announcer Ray Bentley. Nick Bellore, and Matt Berning are as solid as you get in the MAC. Armond Staten adds depth as well. None the less, the Broncos aren't lacking themselves. Dave Cohen uses a lot of linebackers and all have been productive. Mitch Zajac, Woody Legrier, and Dex Jones, don't take a backseat to anyone in the league. While Bellore is a stud, the Bronco depth means fresh legs late. If you'd have asked me a month ago I'd say CMU has a decided edge at linebacker. As of late they've looked less than enthusiastic.
Even
Defensive Backs-WMU DB's Jamell Berry, Lewis Toler, Doug Wiggins, and Damond Smith are flat out head and shoulders over the CMU DB's. Mario Armstrong, and the freshmen phenoms have been solid as well. Western doesn't lose a beat when Pettway, Buxton, or Johnnie Simon are on the field. CMU struggled to find defense on the backside, even during their four year stretch of winning. This year is no different. If the Bronco receivers don't have record days it will have to be because of the weather or the Kelly Shorts voodoo mojo.
Edge WMU
So there you have it. WMU has an edge at 5 positions, CMU an edge at 1 position, and another positions shows up even. Should be a lopsided Bronco win......right.
Prediction
The last time Bill Cubit and Western Michigan beat CMU was the 7-4 season of 2005, when Cubit defeated Brian Kelly's team 31-24. Even that game was lopsided at times, but in the end it came down to one last defensive play to seal the game.
Enos is a first year coach who is a bit low key, and who is trying to install a new offense after years of running the spread. Bill Cubit is a 6th year seasoned head coach who has had the same offense in place since coming to Western. At times Enos's team has looked uninspired and lost. Early in the season though they looked like a team on the brink of being good. What does all of this mean? Who the hell knows.
That's just it, on paper the Broncos appear to have a decided edge. Better players at the skill positions and more impressive games against like opponents. Of course I should pick the Broncos. Problem is, there's some voodoo magic about Kelly Shorts that can make Greg Jennings fumble a punt late in the game. There's some mojo in the air up there, that can make an 8-1 MAC West Champ, lose to to a 1-8 gawd awful Chip team. I was there, and they sucked the swagger right out of a team that was drunk on swagger. Frankly, it was creepy to watch, because the talent disparity on the field was huge.
The weather for tomorrow calls for 22 degrees tomorrow night, with winds out of the NW at 11 mph. Not bad football weather, but not the kind of weather than a bunch of Florida kids will feel comfortable with. WMU has 35 FL kids, CMU has 16.
My brain tells me Western wins this game fairly easily, but you can throw out the logic in this one. Something weird always happens in this game. Something unexpected always occurs. Something that shouldn't have happened always seems to crop up. Whether Enos has brought that mojo with him the Swami can't say. Whether Bill Cubit has had enough, and is ready to let the horses out of the barn is yet to be seen. The expected will be the unexpected......count on it.
The MAC league leader in interceptions has a near perfect game. Paris Cotton hangs on to the ball as if it's a greased pig. Bill Cubit refuses to go for it in the redzone and takes the three on four different occasions. The heat on the bus from the hotel malfunctions, the driver gets lost, ice forms in the redzone as the Broncos drive early. Expect the unexpected.