BroncoBlitz.com - Broncos head to Toledo

October 8, 2009

D. Burgardt
Special to BroncoBlitz.com

I've been following the Broncos for about 30 years, and haven't missed a home game since 1990. In that stretch I can only remember one game like the game I saw in DeKalb.

In 2004 the Broncos traveled to Muncie to face a Ball State team picked for last in the MAC. The final score of that game was Ball State 41 WMU 14. It didn't seem that close. Ball State went on to finish next to last in the MAC West and WMU went 0-8 in the MAC, ending Gary Darnell's career at Western Michigan.

The 2004 team had talent, with players like Greg Jennings, Tony Scheffler, and Ryan Cubit. Which brings me to the 2009 team.

There is talent on this 09 team. Enough talent to compete in the upper tier of the MAC West. I'm sure most would question that after watching last Saturday's pasting, and who could blame them.

Saturday's game at Toledo may be the most important game in Bill Cubit's career. The Broncos don't have to leave Toledo with a win, but they do have to compete for 60 minutes. If the Broncos have an NIU like performance in Toledo then doubt will set in, confidence will wane, the fan base will dwindle as well. Bill Cubit may be a victim of his own success; winning has bred the expectation of winning.

That said, Bill Cubit has shown himself to be coach who can overcome obstacles, and more important, get his team to refocus on the next game. In 2005 the Broncos lost a heart breaker in overtime to Ball State, and followed it up the next week with a totally unexpected blowout of Bowling Green on the road. In 2007 they came off an extremely frustrating loss to CMU and followed it up with a win at Iowa.

So what should Bronco fans expect on Saturday in Toledo? Probably a better showing than they might expect.

For starters, outside of Toledo's signature win against Colorado, they haven't played all that well. They were blown out at Purdue, and shut out by OSU, although that was within the realm of expectation. They beat a Ball State team that lost to North Texas and New Hampshire. They beat a FIU team that has yet to win a game. This writer isn't ready to say Toledo has returned to championship form, although I do think they are vastly improved in the post Amstutz era.

The Good

Four key starters return to the WMU roster, including WR Juan Nunez, C Nick Mitchell, and SS Doug Wiggins. Sunny, dry, temperatures between 40-50 degrees, wind 10 mph in a stadium that shields the wind fairly well. Good conditions for the WMU offense. And of course, the Broncos are 1-0 against teams from Ohio in 2009.

The Bad

When the Rockets were good they went 15-2 against WMU. When they went in the toilet in recent years the Broncos won three straight.

Toledo's offense is on fire. They lead the MAC in total offense, total points, and in passing offense. Aaron Opelt is a better quarterback than NIU's Chandler Harnish. Stephen Williams and freshmen Eric Page are far better than the NIU receivers. Harnish had all day to throw, and had a field day picking the Bronco DB's apart. The Broncos have lacked a pass rush for a long time. If they don't get pressure on Opelt his stable of stud receivers will make for a long day.

The Possibilities

As bad as WMU looked last week they're still 1-1 in the MAC and with a win could be 2-1 and suddenly looking good. The season has not gotten away from them, but we're approaching that point. Many of WMU's problems are not about talent, but about execution and focus. Focus, as in hanging on to the ball. Turnovers almost always result in points, and they simply can't stay in a game with UT if they lose the turnover margin.

Score in the red zone and you'll be in the game. The Broncos have moved the ball all year. Unfortunately, it's been moving between the twenties. Not only does it keep points off the board, it gives momentum back to the opponent. On paper the Bronco offensive line has the size and experience to move the ball in the red zone. If they can translate that to the field Brandon West could have a big day.

Prediction

While I don't think UT is back to championship form, I have no idea what team will show up for the Broncos. WMU has the talent to win this game. Whether they have the mindset to play for four quarters is anyone's guess.

The UT ground attack is not as scary as NIU's, but it's solid, and Opelt can run the ball too. Toledo will put points on the board, and have done so against 4 out of 5 teams. The Bronco offense has yet to show it can put points on the board. Even against Miami when WMU put up 48 points, the Broncos started on a very short field thanks to Redhawk turnovers.

Toledo does what they've done all year, score points---by the bushel. Bronco offense continues to be a work in progress. It's a happy homecoming for Rocket fans.

Toledo 41 Western Michigan 24