BroncoBlitz.com - Broncos vs Buffalo: Breakdown and Prediction

October 23, 2009

D. Burgardt
BroncoBlitz.com Publisher

Coaches
WMU's Bill Cubit (Delaware, 1975), 66-42-1, 10 seasons; 32-24 at WMU, fifth season.
Buffalo's Turner Gill (North Texas, 1990), 17-26, four seasons, all at Buffalo.

Series
WMU leads 4-0, including a 34-28 come-from-behind overtime win last year at Buffalo.

KALAMAZOO-The weather seems to be improving as the Broncos head into homecoming weekend, but weather probably won't be the deciding factor. One word defines this game, that would be INJURIES. The Broncos will be missing one, if not both of their top receivers, and the Bulls will be missing not only their top running back James Starks, but his two top back-ups as well. In addition to injuries on offense, the Broncos will also be with out one of their top DB's in Mario Armstrong. This is compounded by the fact that Buffalo has two of the top receivers in the MAC.

Two questions come to mind. Can the the young backups step up and perform, and can this team recovers from last weeks loss to CMU.

Even Bill Cubit admitted that forgetting about last weeks loss wasn't easy. "Being realistic it was hard for them to refocus after that game, heck it was hard for me too," he said. "This week it's about refocusing and working hard. These have been some very hard practices. Tuesday's was okay, but today's was much better."

So if what Cubit says is true, his crew will be mentally ready for Saturday's game.

As for the guys replacing Nunez and White (who may play), look for Chleb Ravenell to step up, along with Ansel Ponder and Trey Smith. All had big plays in last weeks game, with Ravenell picking up 60 yards on seven catches. Trey Smith had his first career touchdown last week, and showed what the future may hold for this 6'5" WR.

Defensively, Armstrong will be replaced by experienced players such as Keith Dixon or Jamail Berry.

Head to Head

Scoring Offense...WMU 4th UB 8th
Scoring Defense...UB 6th WMU 8th
Passing Offense.. WMU 3rd UB 3rd
Pass Defense..... UB 3rd WMU 10th
Turnover Margin.. WMU and UB tied for 10th
Rushing Offense...UB 4th WMU 11th
Rush Defense......UB 5th WMU 10th
3rd Down Cvs..... UB 2nd WMU 3rd

WMU has the edge in only one category and were tied in two, while UB has an impressive edge on the defensive side. UB's edge on the rush side of the ball may be negated by the loss of their two top rushers.

Hiller vs. Maynard- Hiller averages 265 yards in total offense, Maynard 255. Hiller has completed 62.5% of his passes, Maynard 63% of his passes. While there is little edge statistically, Maynard is a sophomore in his first year as a starting QB while Hiller is a 5th year senior.

Prediction

On paper this game is a tough one to pick. Many point to the CMU/Buffalo game which went to the wire. Fact is Buffalo is one of the harder places to win at these day, and the Bulls almost always have an edge there, so I'm not sure I read too much into that. They're also the team that lost at Temple 37-13.

This game is not about Buffalo, it's about Western Michigan. Cubit said his team left 24 points on the field last week. If they do that again, they lose. Scoring in the redzone against a very good UB defense will not be easy.

If the injuries at UB are true, then don't expect the Bulls to run much. Can the WMU defense capitalize on knowing that, we'll see.

Bill Cubit is 3-1 in homecomings. This is Tim Hillers last one. WMU's players traveled 2 miles to their rooms, Buffalo traveled 500. Tim Hiller's a 5th year senior, Maynard is playing in his 8th game.

Look for the Broncos to bounce back from the CMU loss, and win in a surprisingly easy fashion. Most of Buffalo's games have been low scoring affairs and this won't be different. Tim Hiller and Brandon West use a balanced offense, while the Bronco D lays in wait on a banged up UB offense, that will almost have to air it out.

Broncos 28 Buffalo 20

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